Individual Absence Rate Sensitivity Analysis Formula
Learn how current and scenario absence rates are converted into estimated absence days, attendance changes and absence-related cost changes.
This calculation applies each absence rate to an individual's scheduled working days, then compares the two estimates. It helps illustrate the arithmetic effect of a possible rate change on available attendance days and an entered cost estimate.
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Estimated Change in Absence Days
Where:
Multiply scheduled working days by the difference between the scenario and current absence rates. A negative result means fewer estimated absence days in the scenario.
Variables Explained
| Variable | What It Means | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| workingDaysPerYear - Scheduled working days | The number of days the individual is scheduled to work in the period being analysed. | days |
| currentAbsenceRate - Current absence rate | The individual's current absence as a percentage of scheduled working time. | percent |
| scenarioAbsenceRate - Scenario absence rate | The alternative absence percentage being tested. | percent |
| costPerAbsentDay - Estimated cost per absent day | The consistent estimated cost assigned to one absence day. | currency |
Step-by-Step Calculation
Estimate current absence days
Apply the current percentage to scheduled working days.
currentAbsentDays = workingDaysPerYear * (currentAbsenceRate / 100)
Estimate scenario absence days
Apply the alternative percentage to the same number of scheduled days.
scenarioAbsentDays = workingDaysPerYear * (scenarioAbsenceRate / 100)
Calculate the absence-day change
A negative value indicates fewer estimated absence days under the scenario.
absenceDaysChange = scenarioAbsentDays - currentAbsentDays
Calculate the attendance-day change
This reverses the absence-day difference, so a positive result indicates more days available for work.
attendanceDaysChange = currentAbsentDays - scenarioAbsentDays
Estimate current and scenario costs
Each estimated absence total is multiplied by the entered daily cost.
currentAbsenceCost = currentAbsentDays * costPerAbsentDay; scenarioAbsenceCost = scenarioAbsentDays * costPerAbsentDay
Calculate the cost change
A negative result indicates a lower estimated cost in the scenario.
estimatedCostChange = scenarioAbsenceCost - currentAbsenceCost
Example: testing a reduction from 5% to 3% absence
Current absent days
260 × (5 ÷ 100)
13.0 days
Scenario absent days
260 × (3 ÷ 100)
7.8 days
Change in absent days
7.8 − 13.0
−5.2 days
Additional attendance days
13.0 − 7.8
5.2 days
Estimated cost change
(7.8 × 200) − (13.0 × 200)
−$1,040
Final Result
A reduction from 5% to 3% estimates 5.2 fewer absence days, 5.2 additional attendance days and a $1,040 lower annual absence-related cost.
Assumptions
- ✓Each absence rate is applied evenly across all entered scheduled working days.
- ✓The current and scenario rates refer to the same time period and definition of absence.
- ✓The cost per absent day is constant for every estimated absence day.
- ✓The result is an arithmetic planning estimate, not a measure of performance, health or cause of absence.
Limitations
- !Actual absence patterns may be uneven and may not match a percentage-based estimate.
- !Costs can differ by absence type, duration, cover arrangements and operational circumstances.
- !A lower scenario rate does not establish that the change is achievable or appropriate.
- !The calculation does not account for wider workplace, health, disability, caring or policy considerations.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Entering calendar days rather than scheduled working days.
Comparing rates that were measured over different periods or under different absence definitions.
Typing 5 as 0.05 when the input expects a percentage value of 5.
Treating a negative cost change as a guaranteed saving.
Using a daily cost estimate that includes costs for one scenario but not the other.
Related Formulas
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you calculate absence days from an individual absence rate?
Multiply scheduled working days by the absence rate divided by 100. For example, 260 days at 5% produces 13 estimated absence days.
What does a negative change in absence days mean?
It means the scenario rate is lower than the current rate, so the scenario estimates fewer absence days.
How is the estimated absence cost calculated?
Estimated absent days are multiplied by the cost per absent day entered for each rate scenario.
Why does the attendance-day change equal the opposite of the absence-day change?
With scheduled working days held constant, each fewer estimated absence day becomes one additional day available for attendance.
Can this formula be used for a month or quarter?
Yes. Enter the scheduled working days for that period and use absence rates that relate to the same period.
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